Imaginechina via AP Images (background).

In 1988, Michael Lewis traveled to Japan for an article that would appear the following year in an issue of the now defunct Manhattan, Inc. magazine. The piece that resulted, “How a Tokyo Earthquake Could Devastate Wall Street and the World Economy,” was part fact, part fiction: What would the economic fallout be if a 7.9-magnitude earthquake struck Japan’s largest city? Lewis discussed whether the country’s infrastructure was capable of withstanding such a high-magnitude earthquake—pointing out that the complex systems in place then were programmed to shut off in extreme conditions, because they could not be trusted to operate effectively. However, much of the economic toll that Lewis envisioned was predicated on different, more prosperous financial times in Japan. Following the publication of the article, the country entered its “Lost Decade,” sinking into economic irrelevance. But Lewis’s article remains eerily incisive throughout: “Many of Tokyo’s citizens, like Holland’s, live on unstable land that has been reclaimed from the sea. Neon signs are everywhere. So are bulk-chemical factories. Even if the skyscrapers don’t fall, they’ve created new hazards by jamming people into perilously close quarters.” We talked to the Vanity Fair contributor about his prescience and the ongoing catastrophe in Japan. (To read the full text of the original piece, go here.)